Kalshi results
See what our saved Kalshi recommendations would have returned, after estimated trading fees.
Sportsbook results · Bankroll challenge
Which Kalshi picks count?
We check Yes and No separately at the buy price saved before the game. A pick counts when our model estimates at least 5% return after trading fees and at least 100 contracts were available at that price.
For example, say a contract costs 20¢ including fees and our model gives it a 21% chance of paying $1. Its average expected payout is 21¢. That’s 1¢ of expected profit for every 20¢ spent, or a 5% projected return.
The results below simulate buying 100 contracts per qualifying pick. They show how those picks actually turned out at the saved prices, with estimated fees included.
Overall since November 5, 2026
0 recorded days. Winning contracts paid $0.00. Estimated fees: $0.00. 0 pending picks ($0.00 cost) are excluded from profit and return until graded.
Total profit over time
The line starts at $0. Each point adds a completed day’s profit or loss. This is profit, not a bankroll balance.
Daily results
Results appear after a saved pregame run is graded.
| Market | Wins / losses | Cost with fees | Payout | Profit / loss | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 / 0 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — |
| Assists | 0 / 0 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — |
| Points | 0 / 0 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — |
| Saves | 0 / 0 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | — |
See every tracked pick (0)
| Player | Market | Pick | Price each | 100-contract cost + fees | Actual | Result | Profit / loss |
|---|
How does a 14¢ contract work?
One YES contract costs 14¢ plus a trading fee. If the player reaches the stated number of goals, it pays $1 total. That is an 86¢ profit before the fee. If the player does not reach it, the contract pays $0 and you lose the purchase price and fee.
In this example, 100 contracts cost $14 plus fees and pay $100 if they win. NO wins when the player finishes below the stated number. A “2+ goals” contract needs at least two goals.
A low win percentage can still make money when winning contracts were inexpensive. Return means profit divided by the cost of graded purchases, including fees.
Exactly what we track
We use the latest saved pregame snapshot for each game, carrying earlier data forward when a later run covers only other games. We include both YES and NO sides marked Buy: modeled return of at least 5% after estimated fees, with at least 100 contracts quoted at the asking price. Wait, unavailable, and thin-size offers are excluded. The 5% entry rule is a modeled return estimate, not a promised result.
Each winning contract pays $1. Fees use the archived fee calculation for a single 100-contract purchase. Every purchase uses 100 contracts; dollar costs differ by price. This example does not compound a bankroll. Multiple thresholds and markets on the same player can move together.
Grades use final NHL player statistics. Missing results and players with no recorded playing time stay pending for settlement review. This is a saved-model replay; actual fills, slippage, publication, and Kalshi settlement adjustments are not verified. Earlier snapshots may have changed or expired before a visitor acted.